(XYZ) Correlation & Causation

(XYZ) Correlation & Causation

You cannot really prove anything. You can only provide evidence or disprove something. What’s considered a fact is only a collection of shreds of evidence that you affirm – which hasn’t been disproved as of yet. It’s important to highlight the word (YET) Cuz when enough time passes – it’ll be evident that what was is no more. The power of yet keeps coming and going and will always be the ultimate decision maker.

The media helps at this – it brings us a bit closer to what’s going on.

People can’t help but get mad when things don’t go how they expected. I consider myself a word scientist. I’m always dissecting and observing the way sentences are heard and the way they are processed in the mind. If you could know before things went south, you’d consider yourself ‘Warned’. For years people around the world have considered this to be ‘Prophecy’ – some human in the wilderness screaming out “Trouble is coming – get Yo house in order” most people wouldn’t consider this person as anything other than crazy.

I remember growing up – there was a lady who lived on the corner of our street who we nicknamed “The Junk-lady house” understandably so because her house was filled with weeds and she has several cats gathered around her house. I remember once I had to confront her because a piece of mail came to our house instead of her house. No one in my family wanted to send it over but me being the curious one decided to take the challenge. I remember running up to her door to only knock on her door very loudly. I was nervous because I felt something would come out and bite me! After about 5 seconds I decided to run away only leaving the package on the doorstep. She eventually opened the door and said why are you running away? Come in – I promise nothing will come to get you.

Turns out, she was a sweet woman named ‘Ookie’ she said the best way to remember her was her name was like a cookie – but without the C in front of it. She always would cut people’s grass for free and offer her services. Under one condition – you had to hear her talk about environmental causes. That’s all she talked about. How the planet is going to waste because we cut down too many trees which give us energy.

Last time I heard anything from her was while watching ‘Hoarders’ she was in this episode and I nearly freaked out because I remembered her. At any rate – she had a point. The world was suffering but everyone around the world only knew her as the crazy woman who had a junky house.

Nonetheless, we are warned. Whether we listen to this or not – doesn’t change the fact people gonna complain about not being prepared enough.

So many people arrive in various peculiar beliefs because they piece together things based on how it correlates with something else.

However, Let it be known:

Correlation does not show causation.

This is one of the number one things people get wrong over and over.

“Studies show that MRI scans of people who watch porn display HEAVY BRAIN DAMAGE, see this means, porn damages your brain!”

“Increases in snowballs being sold in the summer are strongly correlated with drowning accidents. See, Jesse you better stop eating snow cones or you risk drowning.

Correlation does not result in direct causation.

This is also a time where we focus so much on what is agreed. You can have a conversation filled with extreme passion and once a point has been made someone at the end of it will sometimes say:

“Well, I don’t agree”

Well, I don’t make statements to validate who’s in my amen corner. Inform me of your Y’s in contrast to my X’s. It’s cool.

We have this absurd obsession with getting people to agree with our said beliefs.

I wrote about this before on Facebook but I’ll say it again here:

In psychology, there’s a concept called “confirmation bias,” where people only accept evidence of things that already confirm what they believe. Researchers have been studying this for years and I can testify as of late, how real that shit is. Have you ever factored in what makes you believe what you validated for years? The more you check yourself on EVERYTHING (Yes, it’s a process but well worth it – There’s no graduation involved) you’ll begin to pull at your own line of questioning. A lot of this will be heartbreaking but hilariously enlightening.

In the absence of evidence from proponents of existence, there is exactly zero reason to subscribe to an implausible belief for which its proponents offer exactly zero valid support.

Proximity is close enough to the truth.

The truth of an experience, the truth of right around the corner, the truth cuz it might just happen to me.

How many times have you heard that? “It COULD HAVE BEEN ME!” Well,  maybe if the variations were the same but come on. 😛

Be aware of how you counter this illusion.

Next time (XYZ) which is to assume the same variables at play now will happen again. Well, it won’t. Probability says – the results that occurred now will occur again but that’s likely not to happen.

We often like to think, if we were to make one minor change in our direction then the whole outcome will be differently. This is true to a degree, but slight changes are just as monumental as BIG changes. You can’t run out of lengths when widths are maximized.

This reminds me of the scene from ‘The Curious Case of Benjamin Button’

“When the package was wrapped, the woman, who was back in the cab, was blocked by a delivery truck, all the while Daisy was gettin’ dressed. The delivery truck pulled away and the taxi was able to move, while Daisy, last to be dressed, waited for one of her friends, who had broken a shoelace. While the taxi was stopped, waitin’ for a traffic light, Daisy and her friend came out the back of the theater. And if only one thing had happened differently; if that shoelace hadn’t broken; or that delivery truck had moved moments earlier; or that package had been wrapped and ready, because the girl hadn’t broken up with her boyfriend; or that man had set his alarm and got up five minutes later; or that taxi driver hadn’t stopped for a cup of coffee; or that woman had remembered her coat, and got into an earlier cab, Daisy and her friend would’ve crossed the street, and the taxi would’ve driven by.”

Just those subtle changes make a whole lot of difference. However – it’s been made. It happened in the way it did – if only we could think of what we do before we do it – if math could be reversed?

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